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Employment tendencies index declines in October, job progress deceleration anticipated


November 07, 2022

The Convention Board’s Employment Tendencies Index declined in October to a studying of 119.57, down from an upwardly revised 120.73 studying in September 2022. The group expects job progress to proceed, although at a slower tempo, within the coming months.

“The ETI decreased in October 2022 and has been flat since early 2022, however it stays at a excessive stage, and a transparent turning level within the index isn’t but seen,” Frank Steemers, senior economist at The Convention Board, stated. “Due to this fact, job progress will seemingly proceed over the subsequent months, albeit at a slowing tempo. Certainly, the labor market stays resilient with job features nonetheless sturdy.”

Steemers famous that the Fed’s fast financial coverage tightening would possibly negatively influence the tempo of hiring by early 2023.

“Till that occurs, employers must take care of continued labor shortages. Whereas there are indicators these shortages have begun easing considerably, hiring and retention difficulties usually are not over. A decent US labor market, understaffing, restricted restoration in labor pressure participation and an ageing workforce all recommend US labor provide will stay a problem for corporations. Because of this, employers could also be extra cautious in shedding employees.”

October’s lower within the Employment Tendencies Index was pushed by unfavorable contributions from 4 of eight elements. The share of respondents who stated they discover jobs “arduous to get” was the most important unfavorable contributor, adopted by preliminary claims for unemployment insurance coverage, actual manufacturing and commerce gross sales, and job openings.

The Employment Tendencies Index aggregates eight main indicators of employment; when the index will increase, employment is more likely to improve as effectively, and vice versa.

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